Many investors think their job requires them to develop a macro outlook and invest according to its dictates.
Consensus forecasts provide no advantage it’s only from being more right than others – from having a knowledge advantage – that investors can expect to Or, rather, macro forecasting is another area where – as with investing in general – it’sĮasy to be as right as the consensus, but very hard to be more right.
The reason for this is simple: to use Buffett’s terminology, we’re convinced the macro future isn’t knowable. Oaktree doesn’t employ any economists, and we rarely invite them to our offices to share their views. In fact, one of the six tenets of Oaktree’s investment philosophy states flatly that we don’t base our investment decisions Regular readers of my memos know that Oaktree and I approach macro forecasts with a high degree of skepticism. And shows his very best characters.Latest Memo from Howard Marks: Thinking About Macroįor a piece of information to be desirable, it has to satisfy two criteria: it has to be important, and it has to be knowable. Harold stars in a new online commercial by OTTO. However, I would carefully pick the photographer and the type of photos they take. If I were invited to do a stock photoshoot now, I wouldn’t say no.
Have you ever imagined it'd come to this? And would you ever have any new stock images produced with you?Ī few years ago, it would have never occurred to me to star in a commercial. Now, you're even starring in an online commercial by the German online retailer OTTO. There's been quite some buzz around you lately. My favorite memes that do not include me would be those that use classic art and show society’s ignorance. After all, they're the ones that originally invented "Hide the pain"-Harold. Honestly: It is a good feeling to know that so many people love me. How about you: Can you laugh about memes? Do you have a favourite one? Since then, more people stop me on the street for a picture with them, or to shake my hand, to add me on social media. Then, about a year ago, I decided that, since I cannot stop the popularity, I should accept the situation and instead of others making funny memes out of me, I will build my own personality on social media. Do people even recognize you on the street?Īt first, of course, it was strange to be recognized on the street. "Harold" you're well-known across the globe as an internet star.
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